State Forecasts 120,000 Tons Growers Report Fruit Drop Acreage Decline Continues

The official state estimate forecasts a California prune crop of 120,000 tons, about 20,000 tons short of a normal crop. Earlier in the spring, favorable weather conditions during bloom boosted expectations for a good crop after last year’s meager harvest of 81,000 tons.

“The trouble is that production was less than 60% of normal last year so the projected increase gets us to only 80% of a normal crop,” explained Greg Thompson, PBA General Manager. ‘This is hard news for an industry that is seeing positive sales growth after experiencing a series of crop disasters.’

The state estimate is based on a survey of prune growers conducted from May 9 to May 30 by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. Responses were received from 249 growers representing 52 percent of the total bearing acreage.  The 5-year average crop for the period 2003 through 2007 is 117,000 tons. The prior 5-year average was 135,000 tons for the period 2002 through 2006.

Since May, growers report little change to the crop with normal conditions for the most part.  A heat spell occurred in mid-May and another occurred around June 20th. Heavy smoke from forest fires reduced solar radiation by 20% for about a week in late June.  Overall, the crop set is reported as highly variable between trees and orchards. Some trees have heavy crops while nearby trees have light crops. 

Fruit drop was noticeable during the last week in June and the brief hot spell in June caused some heat damage and sunburn.  Overall, the crop is reported clean, i.e. free of defects, and fruit sizing appears normal.  Ideal harvest timing based on the degree-day model is expected to be later than normal, however, some prune plum varieties for the fresh market are picking at normal timing.